After the official end of World War II in 1945, there was no large global war until now. It seems that the majority of countries have settled for peace, however, inter- and intra-countries conflicts have never stopped. Some major conflicts, either between countries or civil wars, are Korean war (1950 - 1953), Vietnam war (1961 - 1973), the war in Afghanistan (2001 - 2021), Iraq war (2003 - 2010), Syria civil war (2011 - present), and so on.
The effects of conflicts can be long-term and short-term in various fields, including but not limited to deaths of soldiers and civilians (resulting in a sharp decrease of population), the destruction of infrastructure, such as schools, hospitals, roads, etcs., and the damage to culture, education, economy, environment and humanity.
According to a research about war and GDP per capita (Sevastianova, 2009), there is no clear pattern of the relationship between wars and economic behaviours. The income of countries were generally reduced in civil wars, but some also increased, like India. The impact of inter-countries wars on the GDP is even more ambiguous, some countries showed a decreasing pattern during wars (such as Egypt, Iran and Uganda), while others had a growth of GDP per capita during wars (such as Israel, Syria and China). Wars not only affect the economy of countries which are directly involved in the war, but also affect the global stock markets (Schneider & Troeger, 2006). The reactions of the stock market to international conflicts are negative for most of the time according to the research. However, the sensitivities of stock markets are not the same for every international conflict. One example of the positive reaction of the stock market to wars is how Wall Street reacted in the Gulf war.
Expenditure could be one of the most important indicators of the attitude of a country to conflicts (Collier & Hoeffler, 2004). On the one hand, military expenditure gives the rebels a signal of government intentions. On the other hand, military expenditure can reduce the prospects of rebel success, thus, reduce the chance of conflicts. Generally, low military expenditure shows that the country intends to embrace the peace settlement. In post-conflict societies, the increase in military spendings has a negative effect on new conflict, which means high military expenditure might trigger the risk of renewed conflict.
RQ1: What are the trends of conflicts and conflict deaths from 1990 to 2020?
RQ2: How do conflicts affect the GDP of the countries involved?
RQ3: What are the characteristics of countries with high level of military expenditure?